This year’s package theft report is based on a combination of FBI crime statistics, an independent safety survey, and our own proprietary survey data. We collected responses from at least 150 people per state—totaling 7,500 participants nationwide—to get a clear, representative view of package theft across the US.
Two-thirds of survey respondents provided insights on various types of crime they had experienced, while the remaining third were all victims of package theft. This dual approach allowed us to analyze broader crime trends as well as zero in on the specifics of package theft.
To generate our numbers, we combined FBI data, a third-party safety survey, and our own proprietary survey data to come up with the metrics we used to estimate actual package theft numbers by state and metro areas. We queried the FBI crime data explorer to pull all reported larceny thefts from agencies in the state, the percentages by state of those larceny offenses that were classified as "Other Larceny" (which package theft is usually classified as), and the percentages of those classified offenses that occurred at a home/residence and from a building (which is what package theft would count as).5
We then estimated what the total reported incidents would be if all agencies reported their numbers based on the percentage of the population that had reported metrics. We then estimated the number of non-reported incidents and the dollar value of all incidents based on our proprietary survey data. With those two metrics, we ranked each metro and state by their per capita (1,000) package theft incidents and total value lost to porch piracy.
SafeWise Package Theft Survey
The 2024 SafeWise Package Theft Survey used a 16-question online survey fielded in August 2024 using Pollfish. We collected responses from 2,500 respondents across the US who’ve had a package stolen at some point in their lifetime. The survey asked participants about their first-hand experiences with package theft.
Respondents were then asked explicitly about their experiences with package theft in the 12 months prior to the survey, including if they experienced it multiple times, the average cost of stolen packages, and any methods employed to prevent package theft before and after experiencing a theft.
Pollfish survey methodology
Pollfish employs a survey methodology called Random Device Engagement (RDE) to reach a vast audience without using monetary incentives. RDE is an evolution of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) and operates within popular mobile apps. This approach leverages a neutral environment similar to RDD and targets users not intentionally participating in surveys.
SafeWise State of Safety survey methodology
The State of Safety is a nationwide survey that dives into America’s top safety concerns. Over the past six years, we’ve surveyed more than 30,000 Americans—at least 600 from every state—to discover their perceptions and attitudes about safety and crime.
Lux Insights fielded the most recent State of Safety survey in August 2024. Lux surveyed 5,000 residents across the U.S. (at least 100 in each state), and based on the number of completes, there is a margin of error (MOE) of ±1.4%. Each state has an MOE of approximately ±9.8%.
One section of the survey is devoted to package theft, focusing on experience with and concern about it over the 12 months prior to the survey. Read the full methodology.